Crosetto between budget and reforms: 2026 key year for Defense

The Defense Budget 2026 is increasing, but the turning point might come more from Brussels than from Rome. The numbers approved with the 2026-2028 Budget Law describe a continuous increase, but with a still “provisional” framework: two European instruments risk soon redesigning the expenditure.

The first is the SAFE (Security action for Europe) loan: 14.9 billion euros are allocated to Italy. After the approval of the national plan by the EU Commission and pending the final green light from the European Council, the central question remains political and industrial: how will the 14.9 billion be used, on which programs and with which European partners?

The second element is the “National escape clause” (NEC), a mechanism that would allow increasing Defense spending up to 1.5% of GDP in derogation of the Stability and Growth Pact rules (for a maximum period currently indicated as four years). For Italy, the key step is exiting the excessive deficit procedure, after which the activation request could come. If SAFE + NEC were really combined, the government aims for a “real” increase path up to +0.5% of GDP, equal to about 12 billion “at regime” from 2028, although the issue of structural sustainability remains.

The Defense Function rises to 23.7 billion

Meanwhile, the more solid numbers are those of the State forecast of the Ministry of Defense. The Defense Function (Army, Navy, Air Force; excluding Carabinieri) in 2026 is worth 23,687.3 million euros, with +842.3 million over 2025, that is +4.5%.

It is the ninth consecutive increase and, since 2017, the Defense Function has grown by over 10 billion. However, 2026 shows a slowdown compared to more recent years: not due to a change of course, but because the system is awaiting new flows (also European) and a clearer definition of the overall perimeter.

Indeed, the reconstruction of total expenditure remains complicated: in addition to Ministry funds, resources come from other departments. Estimates indicate about 3 billion from Mimit for investments and about 1.3 billion from Mef for military missions abroad, but precise quantification can only come during 2026.

Inside the chapters: Record Personnel, Exercise recovery, Investments almost stagnant

The breakdown of the Defense Function confirms where the spending is concentrated.

• Personnel: in 2026 it reaches 11,763.8 million, with +418.2 million over 2025 (+3.7%). It is a constant growth over the years and weighs because it happens while the overall organic consistency has decreased: a delicate balance, especially if the hypothesis of increasing the staff returns.
• Exercise: rises from 2,302.3 million to 2,573.8 million, that is +271.5 million (+11.8%). Crucial items such as training and maintenance/support grow, but the decisive question remains: real increase or accounting shift between ministries?
• Investment: goes from 9,197.1 million to 9,349.8 million, an increase of +152.7 million (+1.7%). Inside there is also Research and Development with 112.8 million. The increase appears limited, but it comes after years of strong growth; moreover, with the contribution of Mimit, the overall estimated investment would exceed 12 billion.

On 2026, however, not only finance weighs. It could also be the year of reforms: Minister Guido Crosetto is working on a draft law for a comprehensive reform of the Armed Forces (operational capabilities, administrative simplification, reorganization, Reserve, cybersecurity), with the aim of reaching the Council of Ministers by March and then Parliament, where times and contents could slow down.

In summary: the 2026 budget grows, but the “real” acceleration depends on SAFE, a possible NEC, and the ability to transform resources and announcements into programs, priorities, and reforms.