The truce in the Gaza Strip is wavering and risks breaking at any moment. Some Trump administration officials are sounding the alarm, who – according to confidential documents obtained by Politico – fear a possible implosion of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. A pessimism that contrasts with the public reassurances of the president and his team, but reflects the enormous operational difficulties in implementing the plan mediated by the United States.
The Confidential Dossier and the Plan's Critical Issues
The documents, presented last month during a meeting organized by the US Central Command (Centcom) and the Civil-Military Coordination Center in southern Israel, outline a series of obstacles that could derail the fragile truce. About 400 representatives from the State Department, Defense, NGOs, and research centers like the Blair Institute led by Tony Blair, as well as private sector delegates, attended the meeting.
Among the main critical issues is the creation of the International Stabilization Force, a key element to ensure security in the post-conflict Palestinian territory. The presentation, consisting of over 60 slides and significantly titled “The Hard Work Begins Now: Implementing President Trump's Plan”, lists logistical, political, and coordination problems without offering concrete solutions.
Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey have offered troops for the mission, but Ankara's candidacy has reportedly met resistance from Tel Aviv.
The Project of a US Mega-Base in Southern Israel
In parallel, Israeli media reveal that Washington is considering the construction of a large American military base in southern Israel, near the border with the Strip. The facility – not yet officially confirmed by the IDF – could host thousands of soldiers, becoming a cornerstone of the future stabilization strategy.
The goal would be to reduce dependence on Israelis in the direct management of Hamas, Egypt, and the Palestinian National Authority, increasing the United States' tactical control on the ground.
The Obstacles: Hostages, Tunnels, and Reconstruction
Meanwhile, significant uncertainties remain:
- Hamas has not yet handed over the remains of the last hostages.
- About 150 militants are still trapped in the Rafah tunnels and refuse to disarm without guarantees of a safe corridor.
On the reconstruction front, The Atlantic suggests that work could start only in the area controlled by Israel, where Washington wants to test a “Safe Alternative Community”: a protected neighborhood with a school, medical center, and housing for 25,000 Palestinians selected by Shin Bet and without ties to Hamas. Once settled, residents would not be allowed to return to their original areas.
Tension Returns in Lebanon. Crosetto: “Reevaluate Unifil”
While Gaza remains suspended in limbo, the northern front reignites. In recent hours, Israel has conducted drone attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. It is here that the UN mission Unifil, tasked with monitoring the demarcation line, operates.
Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, after a meeting in Rome with UN Under-Secretary-General Jean-Pierre Lacroix, has relaunched the mission's topic:
“Unifil is a fundamental pillar for Middle East stability,” he wrote on X.
But he also added that it is necessary to “carefully evaluate the effectiveness and sense of the Italian contingent's permanence” in an increasingly unstable regional framework.
A message that reflects the growing uncertainty of the international community in the face of a conflict that, despite diplomatic efforts, continues to threaten the entire Middle Eastern chessboard.
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